Will a bird flu vaccine save the day? It just might, but it's probably years away. and there may be problems with the vaccine when it becomes available.
Problem 1
No vaccine in time. Unfortunately, the H5N1 virus is mutating at a rate that makes it likely to become a pandemic before vaccines are available.
UN Senior Coordinator for Avian and Human Influenza Dr. David Nabarro, said on 12/16/05, "Subtle mutations in the H5N1 virus are bringing the world closer to a pandemic."
"There are some subtle changes in the genetic makeup of H5N1 which suggest that it is making some of the mutations that would enable it to have a higher likelihood of being able to become a human-to-human transmitted virus," said Nabarro.
Meanwhile, we are years away from adequate access to a viable avian flu vaccine for most of the population.
Problem 2
Not enough vaccine. Total worldwide production capacity of all flu vaccines is currently about 300 million doses per year. (The U.S. would need 228 million doses alone). Plants are running at full capacity. New manufacturing facilities will not be up and running for months or years. And the bird flu vaccines being developed are still in trials.
An announcement at a recent World Health Organization conference on bird flu indicated that drug manufacturers could produce adequate avian influenza vaccine starting sometime in 2008. Supplies could protect between a quarter and half the world's population over the course of a year.
This prediction was considered optimistic, even by WHO specialists, who doubted that the process would go smoothly as hoped. For instance, pandemics usually go around the globe in waves of two or three. Though these waves are sometimes separated by a full season, the world would be unprepared for a pandemic if more than one wave hit in one year (which is the usual pattern).
The United States will not have enough vaccine to address the needs of its population in case of a bird flu pandemic for at least three years, despite a proposed major investment in a prevention drive, said Health and Human Services Secretary Mike Leavitt.
Problem 3
The H5N1 virus is mutating. By the time the virus mutates into a form that is easily transmissible from human to human, it may have changes so much that the vaccine won't help prevent it.
Problem 4
The usual problems with vaccines. Critics of vaccines- and there are many- claim that vaccines are made with toxic metals such as mercury, that actually undermine the immune system, and that they don't really work. Even the Centers for Disease Control admitted the 2004 flu vaccinations had "no or low effectiveness" and they are the primary organization that promotes vaccinations.
Problem 5
Out of date virus samples. Anecdotal evidence (i.e., rumors) have it that the World Health Organization has given out the wrong strains of H5N1 virus for vaccine manufacturers to base their vaccines on. The WHO is aware that the virus has mutated significantly since they sent out their samples, but has insisted that manufacturers base their vaccines on the previous samples.
Nancy Cox, director of the influenza branch at the CDC (Centers for Disease Control and Prevention) stated, "If we don't get a good match, the vaccine will be less effective, producing illness, hospitalizations and death."
Bottom Line
H5N1 is too dangerous to trifle with. If a vaccine that works becomes widely available before a pandemic arrives, take it. If a quarantine occurs, you may be required by law to take it. If you live, you can always worry about the mercury later.
Bird Flu Vaccine Update 12/16/05:
The principal bird flu vaccine manufacturer, Sanofi Pasteur, has announced test results that indicate their vaccine will not work adequately when combined with another chemical called an adjuvant to spread supplies.
That means there probably won't be enough supplies, fast enough. If all the world's influenza vaccine companies were to produce this vaccine for six months, there would be enough to vaccinate only 225 million people.
These tests mean “The prospects for developing a pandemic vaccine that can be produced in the quantities the world will demand are now enormously more difficult,” said the founder of the vaccine industry’s pandemic task force. |
About the Author:
William Prescott is a health care researcher and author, focusing on science-based CAM (Complimentary and Alternative) healthcare solutions to contemporary medical challenges. |
