The White House's National Strategy for Pandemic Influenza
states that a flu pandemic would cause massive disruptions lasting for
months, and cities, states and businesses must make plans now to keep
functioning
States should not count on a federal rescue, though the federal
government will stockpile 75 million doses of antiviral drugs and 20 million
doses of vaccine to combat any outbreak
The long-awaited final chapter of the government's preparedness plan paints a
worst-case picture of a flu pandemic that could cause up to two million deaths
in the United States. As many as 40 percent of American workers could be
off the job for up to two weeks, and disruptions could last for
months.
However, Risk Management Solutions, a private catastrophe risk
management service, believes this estimate of chaos, disruption and death, may
be an underestimate.
The California risk modeling company said many studies were
using the 1918 influenza epidemic as a basis for the worst case scenario. That
event had a mortality of 0.67 percent in the United States-- or about 700,000 of the
105 million people who lived then. A similar epidemic now would kill just under
two million.
However, an analysis of virology shows that more severe
pandemics are possible and there is a one-in-five chance of a pandemic more
severe than 1918.
It is also possible that the pandemic may hit in waves and last
in total over a period of several years.
